Changes in the supply pattern of cattle cards in G

The supply pattern of kraftliner cards in Guangdong Province has changed

it is reported that Guangdong Province has always been a major province in the use of kraftliner boards (KLB cards for short) imported from China. In 1998, Hong Kong imported 530000 tons of KLB cow cards, of which about 400000 tons came from the United States, and the remaining 130000 tons came from Canada, New Zealand, South Africa, Sweden, Brazil and other countries. Most of the 500000 tons were re exported to Guangdong, and about 200000 tons were directly shipped from the United States to Guangdong ports, that is, Guangdong Province consumed about 700000 tons of imported KLB cattle cards in 1998

in 1999, the import of all kinds of cattle cards from Guangdong was 83. Qu Yan, general manager of Changzhou 6th element material technology Co., Ltd., told 480000 tons (including transshipment from Hong Kong to Guangdong). However, in 2000, the situation changed sharply. In the first 11 months of the year, the import volume of KLB cow cards in Guangdong was only 350000 tons (including the transfer from Hong Kong to Guangdong). December has been the off-season of carton production, and the import volume of cow cards was small. Therefore, it can be estimated that the import volume of KLB cattle cards in Guangdong Province in 2000 was only half of that in 1998

in 2000, there was no shortage of KLB cow cards in the world, and the export of Guangdong also increased, so the consumption of cow cards did not decrease. Why did the number of imported KLB cow cards decrease sharply? This is mainly due to the great changes in the supply pattern of cattle cards in Guangdong Province in recent years. This change includes three aspects

(I) the supply of high-quality, low gram weight test line (TL beef card for short) in Asia has increased significantly. Although the quality of this kind of beef card is still inferior to that of KLB beef card, it has improved a lot compared with the previous one, and is welcomed by the market because of its clean surface and good printability. Take the TL ox card made in Thailand as an example. Since the fourth quarter of 1998, it has been on trial sale. By the first November of 2000, 80000 tons have landed in the Guangdong market

(II) although the overall quality of Russian KLB ox card is still inferior to that of American KLB ox card, its strength is good. After promotion in recent years, the acceptance of carton factories has been improved. In November 2000, the number of direct imports to Guangdong ports reached 14000 tons. A total of 123000 tons have entered China through the northern border ports and enjoy border trade tax preferences. It is believed that a certain number of cattle cards have entered the Guangdong market

(III) the new TL cattle card production capacity in southern China is huge, such as Dongguan Jiulong, Liwen and other factories. These factories are equipped with advanced equipment. The quality of TL cow cards with high strength and low gram weight produced by them is better than that of other manufacturers in Asia. They also deliver goods in time and have a complete variety. At present, supply exceeds demand in the Guangdong market, and these TL cow cards with medium and high quality have become the main force, greatly squeezing the market of traditional imported KLB cow cards

in the face of this change in the supply pattern of cow cards, Guangdong carton factories, especially export packaging carton factories, are in a very complex mood. It can be said that there are worries among likes. What is the reason

according to the data of Taiwan paper industry, the total amount of TL Niuka production capacity in recent years and the new TL Niuka production capacity in the next 1-2 years may reach 2.5 million tons. Although not all of these TL Niuka production plants are in Guangdong, it can be predicted that TL Niuka produced in northern China will also try to occupy a place in Guangdong, a traditional province where Niuka is used. In the past 1-2 years, the supply of cow cards in Guangdong will exceed demand, and even a price war is very likely, which should be good news for Guangdong carton factory

however, it should also be noted that the raw material structure of TL Kraft card is basically 80% imported OCC plus 20% unbleached kraft pulp (also mainly imported). Due to quality reasons, most of OCC comes from the United States. The waste paper market is a spot market with frequent price fluctuations and large fluctuations. Taking OCC of the United States as an example, at the beginning of 1999, the price in China's major ports was $95 per ton, which rose to $130-132 from August to September 1999, fell slightly in October, and rebounded to $145 in December. Then it soared all the way to $250 in May 2000, then fell steadily, and fell back to $90 in December 2000. In the past two years, the difference between the highest price and the lowest price was US $160. Based on the fact that one ton of OCC can obtain 0.9 tons of recycled fiber, the cost fluctuation of TL Niuka recycled fiber was as high as US $177 per ton. Although this is an extreme example, it is an indisputable fact that TL Niuka is prone to large fluctuations with the impact of American OCC price. The research work was supported by Ningbo scientific and technological innovation team and Ningbo Natural Science Foundation. In recent years, many carton factories in Guangdong in Hong Kong have also experienced the suffering of some TL cattle card manufacturers in Asia refusing to deliver their signed orders due to the soaring price of OCC in the United States in a short time. Will history repeat itself on domestic manufacturers

the following are the operating procedures of the tensile testing machine:

looking at KLB Niuka production plants in North America, these plants are symbiotic operations of pulp and paper, and the raw material is wood chips. In recent years, the price of wood chips fluctuated within a narrow range of plus or minus 5%, which was quite stable. Therefore, the rise and fall of KLB bull card price in North America only depends on one factor of supply and demand, and the range will not change much in the short term

now, the proportion of TL Niuka used by Guangdong carton factories has become larger and larger. If TL Niuka manufacturers are forced to significantly increase their selling price in the short term to reflect the cost when the OCC price in the United States soars sharply in the short term, it will be more difficult for carton factories to master the cost, and it is difficult to significantly increase the carton price in the short term as usual

under the current situation that there is a large price gap between KLB cow cards and TL cow cards, what proportion of the purchase volume of KLB cow cards in the United States and Canada should be accounted for, so as to minimize the sharp fluctuations in carton costs caused by changes in the price of TL cow cards? Some carton factories, especially the owners of carton factories in Hong Kong in the mainland, do not make up their minds easily. If the use of KLB cow cards is excessively reduced, although the carton factories will benefit in a short period of time, is it right or wrong from a long-term strategic perspective